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December 06 Flatland Grinder: The Purpose of Posting.For me the purpose of posting is pretty simple. I like to improve my play. Posting my results regularly gives me a point of reference when things are going wrong and helps to identify losing patterns. However it's only helpful when I'm actually posting losing results and analyzing those losses. Currently I'm running pretty bad. I'm on a 6k hand losing streak out of 20k hands. That sounds a lot worse than it is. Essentially I'm down $100 bucks in cash games for the month. With the run I had upon first returning to the game this was expected. Expecting it doesn't make it a whole lot easier though. I try to make a habit of checking my play for mistakes regularly, but it's more of a scan and conscience check when things are going well. It takes an extended run like this for me to really take a close look at things.
I found that about 90% of my biggest losses were losses incurred while chasing flushes and straights. There are profitable chases and there are unprofitable chases. Generally when chasing a flush or straight I want to see odds of 2-1 on the flop or 4-1 on the turn to continue. In almost all of the cases, accounting for about 80% of my losses, I had the odds I needed to continue. Unfortunately they were expensive chases, and I've had a long stream of them missing, but that's irrelevant. Poker is a game of numbers. In the long term, playing my draws the way that I have been, I can expect to show a profit. One can even use the old salesman's adage of every miss takes you one step closer to a success. It's purely mathematical and only a matter of time before the numbers shake out. That being said, there is another 20% or so of my recent losses that can't be accounted for by mathematical anomalies. My largest loss was suffered when I chased a flush even after a pair had appeared on the turn. This is a terrible situation to be in with a flush, and unfortunately I hit mine, only to lose to the obvious full house. There are little rules of thumb in no limit hold 'em, and one of the first you learn is to drop your draws when there is a pair on board. That was a clear cut mistake. My other losses were lousy beats. Set vs set, full house vs bigger full house, sets vs straight or flush draw and the opponent sucks out.
I felt I needed to take a look at my losses though. J2 have a belief that long losing streaks are pretty common, but when they creep up to the 8k hands streak, it's time so see where you're going wrong.
I also tried moving up limits as I've said, and the losses I took up there were higher as a percentage of my bankroll than the wins I've made playing lower limits to claw my way back up. But to put things in perspective, I'm still showing a beautiful 8bb/100 win rate at my $25 pl game. I'm negative EV at the higher limits, but I've only logged about 2k hands there, and I'm only about -3bb/100. I'm going to wait until I have my bankroll rebuilt to move back up though.
Some good news to report. I beat out 200 others to take second in a freeroll and win $240 today. I was busted out with the better hand against my opponent too, so I'm very happy with my play. Basically the tourney win brings me positive ev for the month, but I don't like to count those wins as part of my play. Freeroll Tourneys I view more like a lottery win. Comments (2)
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